Trump’s recent interview with Kristen Welker, aired on December 8, 2024, brought up the issue of rising crime. Trump asserted that crime is up, a claim that Welker and NBC News attempted to fact-check. However, in this case, Trump is correct, and Welker and NBC News are missing the mark. The reality of crime trends in the U.S. is more complex than the data presented by mainstream outlets, and the claims of decreasing crime are often misleading. Factors like incomplete reporting and selective data use obscure the true picture, which shows a concerning increase in many areas of crime, particularly in property theft and certain violent offenses.

The Hoax

Crime Is Down

Legacy media outlets have been pushing a narrative that crime in the United States is on a steady decline, often citing FBI data that shows a drop in violent crime. Some reports even go so far as to claim we’re experiencing near 50-year lows. Headlines that imply violent crime is falling, or that crime is down, aim to paint a reassuring picture of public safety.

CNN: “Violent crime is down and the US murder rate is plunging, FBI statistics show.”

NBC News: “New FBI stats show ‘historic’ declines in violent crime rate, with murder showing sharpest drop.”

This narrative was pushed on the public throughout the Biden presidency. To support this narrative, the media frequently highlights carefully selected statistics, focusing on reductions in specific types of violent crime or improvements in certain cities. However, these numbers are often presented without full context, creating a misleading impression of a nationwide decrease in crime.

Take a look at how legacy media and the Biden administration presented the narrative that crime rates were decreasing:

ABC NEWS:

Violent crime decreased by 10.3% in the first six months of 2024, according to newly released preliminary FBI data.

From January to June 2024, the Quarterly Uniform Crime Report found that:

• Murder decreased by 22.7%.
• Rape decreased by 17.7%.
• Robbery decreased by 13.6%.
• Aggravated assault decreased by 8.1%.
• Property crime decreased by 13.1%.

The preliminary data is based on voluntary submissions from 14,809 of 19,311 law enforcement agencies in the country.

The Truth

Crime Is Up

The reality of crime trends in America is far more complex and concerning than the simplified narrative presented by legacy media. While certain categories of crime may have shown decreases, a comprehensive analysis reveals a troubling uptick in crime. This discrepancy between reported statistics and actual crime rates stems from a combination of factors, including changes in reporting methodologies, incomplete data collection, and the nuanced nature of crime itself. The truth is that many communities across the United States are experiencing increased crime, particularly in areas such as property crime, retail theft, and certain types of violent offenses. This reality is often obscured by broad national averages and selective reporting. Understanding the true state of crime in America requires a more nuanced approach that considers a wider range of data sources, acknowledges regional variations, and recognizes the change of current crime reporting systems.

1. Cherry-picking Data: Media outlets selectively report on crime categories that show decreases while ignoring or downplaying those that have increased. For instance, while some violent crime categories may have decreased, there has been a significant surge in property crimes, particularly shoplifting, which saw a 24% increase in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023.
2. Incomplete Reporting: The FBI’s crime data, frequently cited by the media, is incomplete due to changes in the reporting system. Many law enforcement agencies, including major departments like those in Los Angeles and New York City, have not fully reported their data, leading to skewed national statistics. The transition to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) created significant gaps, with 40% of law enforcement agencies failing to submit crime data in 2021. States such as Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska also had numerous cities that did not report, according to The Marshall Project. While the FBI spent over $150 million to help agencies transition, logistical challenges, costs, and events like the COVID-19 pandemic delayed compliance. This lack of comprehensive reporting undermines the FBI’s ability to assess national crime trends and allows selective data to be presented, obscuring rising crime in other areas like property theft and violent offenses.

Here is additional context:

A year ago, when the FBI initially released its 2021 national crime data, there wasn’t enough information to tell whether crime went up, went down or stayed the same. The FBI had estimated results for areas that declined to submit data or were unable to do so.

That’s partly because the FBI had rolled out a new reporting system. The data collection system, called the National Incident-Based Reporting System, or NIBRS, gathered more detail on individual incidents but also required training and tech upgrades by state and local policing agencies.

For the first time in two decades, the national law enforcement reporting rate fell below 70% in 2021, primarily due to the FBI’s transition. In 2022, many law enforcement agencies across the country were not NIBRS-certified in time to submit their 2021 crime data, which contributed to lower reporting rates.

Even before the new system launched, there was a gap in reporting nationwide. Prior to 2021, 23% of U.S. law enforcement agencies on average did not report any crime data to the FBI. In 2020, 24% of agencies did not report, and in 2021, it surged to 40%.

See additional context regarding changes in reporting here.

4. Overlooking Local Variations: National averages can mask significant local increases. For example, one study looked at crime trends and reporting and found that nine out of 29 cities studied saw homicide increases from 2023 to 2024, a fact often buried in broader national statistics.

The FBI Quietly Revised Crime Stats

Initially, the FBI reported a 2.1% decline in violent crime for 2022, which was used as a political talking point, but later quietly revised the data to show a 4.5% increase. The revisions added thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and assaults to the totals, yet the FBI offered no explanation or public acknowledgment. Researchers criticized the lack of transparency and noted inconsistencies in the Bureau’s estimation methods. Additionally, the article contrasts FBI data with findings from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which suggests much higher increases in violent crime under the Biden administration. These discrepancies, along with a lack of media coverage on the revisions, raise doubts about the accuracy of crime statistics and their portrayal by the FBI and the media, fueling public mistrust. This discrepancy is rarely addressed in mainstream reporting.

Hoaxology| How This Lie Was Created And Repeated

Selective Reporting

Media outlets emphasize decreases in specific crime categories or timeframes while ignoring increases elsewhere. For instance, reports highlighting a drop in violent crime neglect surges in property crimes or incomplete data for significant urban areas.

Credibility Laundering

Official FBI data and reputable media outlets are presented as infallible sources, lending unearned legitimacy to misleading claims. Subsequent revisions to FBI crime statistics are quietly released without public acknowledgment, leaving the original narrative unchecked.

Strategic Ambiguity

The FBI’s data collection changes and incomplete reporting create confusion. The new reporting system (NIBRS) led to significant underreporting from major law enforcement agencies, but the media failed to clarify these limitations when citing FBI data.

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𝕏 @AmericanDebunk